If you are reading this before the piece on the AL I'd suggest you read the AL piece first so you can get a brief understanding just what this PECOTA thing is.
NL EAST
Philadelphia 88 74
Atlanta 83 79
Florida 81 81
New York 79 83
Washington 76 86
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis 84 78
Cincinnati 82 80
Chicago 79 83
Milwaukee 79 83
Houston 76 86
Pittsburgh 70 92
NL WEST
Arizona 87 75
Colorado 86 76
LA 83 79
San Fran 82 80
San Diego 71 91
HOME RUNS
Prince Fielder Milwaukee 41
Ryan Braun Milwaukee 37
Ryan Howard Phily 36
Albert Pujols St. Louis 33
Adam Dunn Wash 32
Adrian Gonzalez San Diego 32
Mark Reynolds Arizona 29
Troy Tulowitski Colorado 29
Joey Votto Cincy 29
Dan Uggla Florida 29
RBIs
Prince Fielder Milwaukee 112
Ryan Howard Phily 112
Albert Pujols St. Louis 109
Ryan Braun Milwaukee 104
Adrian Gonzalez San Diego 102
David Wright New York 101
Matt Holliday St. Louis 98
Ryan Ludwick St. Louis 98
Brandon Phillips Cincy 98
Carlos Lee Houston 98
BATTING AVERAGE
Hanley Ramirez Florida 326
Albert Pujols St. Louis 318
Pablo Sandoval San Fran 315
Placido Polanco Phily 304
David Wright New York 303
Martin Prado Atlanta 301
Yunel Escobar Atlanta 301
Jose Reyes New York 300
Troy Tulowitski Colorado 299
Carlos Lee Houston 299
RUNS
Chase Utley Phily 104
Hanley Ramirez Florida 101
Ryan Bruan Milwaukee 101
Troy Tulowitski Colorado 101
David Wright New York 99
Albert Pujols St. Louis 97
Michael Bourn Houston 96
Nate McCloth Atlanta 95
Kelly Johnson Arizona 93
Jimmy Rollins Phily 92
Brandon Phillips Cincy 92
STOLEN BASES
Michael Bourn Houston 52
Jose Reyes New York 45
Nyjer Morgan Pittsburgh 39
Everth Cabrera San Diego 33
Carlos Gomez Milwaukee 31
Jimmy Rollins Philadelphia 30
Matt Kemp Los Angeles 29
Hanley Ramirez Florida 27
Shane Victorino Philadelphia 25
Brandon Phillips Cincy 25
Alcides Escobar Milwaukee 25
So what do you guys think? I'd love to get your input.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
PECOTAs Crystal Ball-American League
My favorite web site is baseballprospectus.com. The writers on this site do a better job than anyone I know analyzing baseball. But the site is not for everyone. If you are literate in the language of BABIP, FIP, VORP and their signature projection system called PECOTA you'd probably enjoy it more. PECOTA stands for player empirical comparsion and optimization test algorithm. Quite a mouthful huh. I really can't fully explain how it works, but it DOES. Of course its not 100%. But year after year its by far the most accurate predictive system. The prediction that seemed to get the main streams attention was 2 seasons ago after finishing with only 66 wins PECOTA tabbed the Rays to finish with 90 wins and make the playoffs. While most of us in Florida knew the Rays were improving, 90 wins seemed like a pike dream. The rational was the Rays went from the worst defensive team to one that should be very much improved by getting Jason Bartlett, moving BJ Upton to center, moving Iwamura to second. And they for saw Longo taking over third very early in the season. They predicted this unit would become an over average fielding unit. Which in turn would help the young pitchers. And they hit it right on the nose. This is just one of many things I could point to. So this week when BP released its early PECOTA forecasts I thought it would be interesting to post the predictions and get your feedback. The first thing the suprised me about the AL predictions was no shockers. PECOTA usually hits one underdog. The three best teams are in one division. The biggest surprise alot will find is the outcome of the shortstack. So without further ado here are the predicted standings as of Feb.1 and the top 10 in each of the 5 fantasy categories. I'll do the NL next. And when they have their final predictions right before the season I'll post those.
AL EAST
New York 94 68
Boston 92 70
Tampa 90 72
Baltimore 80 82
Toronto 72 90
AL CENTRAL
Minnesota 83 79
Chicago 80 82
Detroit 78 84
Cleveland 76 86
KC 75 87
AL WEST
Texas 87 75
LA Angels 80 82
Oakland 80 82
Seattle 77 85
Homeruns
Miguel Cabrera Det. 39
Alex Rodriguez NY. 38
Evan Longoria Tam 36
Mark Teixeira NY 34
Carlos Pena Tam 34
Nelson Cruz Tex 31
Chris Davis Tex 31
Justin Morneau Min 29
Josh Hamilton Tex 29
Ian Kinsler Tex 29
RBIs
Mark Teixeira NY 112
Justin Morneau Min 105
Miguel Cabrera Det 105
Alex Rodriguez NY 104
Evan Longoria TB 100
Nick Markakis Balt 93
Josh Hamiton Tex 92
Kevin Kouzmanoff Oak 88
Carlos Pena TB 88
Adam Lind Tor 88
Batting Average
Joe Mauer Min 317
Ichiro Sea 316
Dustin Pedroia Bos 313
Nick Markakis Balt 304
Magglio Ordonez Det 303
Miguel Cabrera Det 302
Vladimir Guerrero Tex 301
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 297
Carl Crawford TB 297
Billy Butler KC 297
Howie Kendrick LA 297
RUNS
Ian Kinsler Tex 111
Dustin Pedroia Bos 106
Evan Longoria TB 94
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 93
Carl Crawford TB 93
Brian Roberts Bal 93
Chone Figgins Sea 93
Curtis Granderson NY 91
Mark Teixeira NY 91
Alex Rodriguez NY 91
STOLEN BASES
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 51
Carl Crawford TB 48
Chone Figgins Sea 40
Juan Pierre Chi 40
Rajai Davis Oak 38
BJ Upton TB 37
Brian Roberts Bal 37
Brett Gardner NY 36
Elvis Andrus Tex 36
Ian Kinsler Tex 30
So what do you guys think? Please comment on what you think PECOTA got right and what they got wrong.
AL EAST
New York 94 68
Boston 92 70
Tampa 90 72
Baltimore 80 82
Toronto 72 90
AL CENTRAL
Minnesota 83 79
Chicago 80 82
Detroit 78 84
Cleveland 76 86
KC 75 87
AL WEST
Texas 87 75
LA Angels 80 82
Oakland 80 82
Seattle 77 85
Homeruns
Miguel Cabrera Det. 39
Alex Rodriguez NY. 38
Evan Longoria Tam 36
Mark Teixeira NY 34
Carlos Pena Tam 34
Nelson Cruz Tex 31
Chris Davis Tex 31
Justin Morneau Min 29
Josh Hamilton Tex 29
Ian Kinsler Tex 29
RBIs
Mark Teixeira NY 112
Justin Morneau Min 105
Miguel Cabrera Det 105
Alex Rodriguez NY 104
Evan Longoria TB 100
Nick Markakis Balt 93
Josh Hamiton Tex 92
Kevin Kouzmanoff Oak 88
Carlos Pena TB 88
Adam Lind Tor 88
Batting Average
Joe Mauer Min 317
Ichiro Sea 316
Dustin Pedroia Bos 313
Nick Markakis Balt 304
Magglio Ordonez Det 303
Miguel Cabrera Det 302
Vladimir Guerrero Tex 301
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 297
Carl Crawford TB 297
Billy Butler KC 297
Howie Kendrick LA 297
RUNS
Ian Kinsler Tex 111
Dustin Pedroia Bos 106
Evan Longoria TB 94
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 93
Carl Crawford TB 93
Brian Roberts Bal 93
Chone Figgins Sea 93
Curtis Granderson NY 91
Mark Teixeira NY 91
Alex Rodriguez NY 91
STOLEN BASES
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 51
Carl Crawford TB 48
Chone Figgins Sea 40
Juan Pierre Chi 40
Rajai Davis Oak 38
BJ Upton TB 37
Brian Roberts Bal 37
Brett Gardner NY 36
Elvis Andrus Tex 36
Ian Kinsler Tex 30
So what do you guys think? Please comment on what you think PECOTA got right and what they got wrong.
Fearless Superbowl Prediction
Since my performance in fantasy football has been perfectly mediocre I would not take my word and run to Vegas with this prediction.
Indy 27 New Orleans 20
Anybody else want to take a stab at guessing.
Indy 27 New Orleans 20
Anybody else want to take a stab at guessing.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
NY vs. FL
The differences between NY and Florida can fill up volumes of books. For the most part I don't miss NY. But when it comes to covering sports there is no comparsion. Here we are Thursday Feb. 4 and here are the two top sports stories in the Sunshine State
1.National College Football Signing Day
2.First NASCAR practice of the season.
It ALMOST makes me miss the snow and cold.
1.National College Football Signing Day
2.First NASCAR practice of the season.
It ALMOST makes me miss the snow and cold.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Do You Feel Lucky?
As we are only a few hours from February the sounds of bats and balls are just around the corner. Which also means Fantasy Baseball is also just around the corner. I was thinking today there are a considerable amount of players who were drafted very high last season who had their season derailed by injury. Those players pose a huge question mark on where they might go in our draft. As I think back to last year the big question was when would A-Rod go. This year I've identified 7 players whose draft status is very questionable due to injury. By the way the number next to the player is his average draft position currently on mockdraftcentral.com
Jose Reyes-ADP 22
The Good-Reyes can steal 70 bases, score over 110 runs and hit 300. And with the spacious outfield Reyes's offensive numbers might even be better than at Shea(expect homers)
The Bad-Reyes makes his living with his legs and any leg injury that took that long to heal has to be worrisome. Also Reyes's maturity level was called into question last year.
The Bottom Line-If Jose looks totally healed in Spring Training there is no way he last until number 22 in our draft. He has first round ability. But there are definitely risks associated with Reyes in 2010
Grady Sizemore-ADP 25
The Good-When healthy Sizemore can help your team in 4 fantasy categories. Also if he cuts down his strikeout percentage his batting average will go up. His BABIP was a very low 276. Expect some regression there.
The Bad-Cleveland will not be a very good offensive team, which means his RBIs and Runs scored opportunities will be lower. BA has been lower the previous year for 4 straight years
The Bottom Line-I think Sizemore's ADP of 25 is probably about right. What pushes his value is his ability to get 30-40 steals. If healthy he won't hurt you.
Johan Santana-ADP 41
The Good-Santana was in the middle of a very good season last year. He had 17/25 QS. Also moving to Citi Field was a plus for a fly ball pitcher like Santana. His HR/FB was his best in 4 years.
The Bad-Like most pitchers on the wrong side of 30 Santana numbers are moving in the wrong direction. His Strikeout rate continues to drop slightly. While his walk rate continues to rise slightly. He just started throwing this week and says he will be fine. But any shoulder injury on a 31 year old pitcher leads to concern.
The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring Training. If he is healthy and continues the typical career path of a power pitcher is numbers may continue to go slightly in the wrong direction. But Johan is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In our league I don't think he makes pick 41.
Josh Hamilton-ADP 52
The Good-Hamilton has showed in spurts to have almost super human ability. Think Roy Hobbs with an addiction. He can easily put up first round numbers. Also hitting in the middle of a potent Texas lineup is a huge plus. And the cherry on top of the sundae is he plays in a terrific hitters park
The Bad-Not only to have have to worry about physical injuries you have to worry about all his other demons. He could be MVP or released in our league. 2008 was his only full productive season
The Bottom Line-Is there any player in all of MLB that we are more unsure of. In my opinion there is no way to project Hamilton. Truly do you feel lucky.
Jake Peavy-ADP 81
The Good-Of all the players on this list Peavy actually returned in 2009 and ended the season with three wins in his last three starts. Peavy's strikeouts per 9 innings has not dipped below 8.5 since 2003. And the Sox are built to win this year.
The Bad-Two big problems. 1.Petco is pitchers version of Disneyworld and the Cell is a very good hitters park. 2 The AL is a much tougher league to pitch in.
The Botton Line-Peavy was consistently one of the 5 pitchers taken in any draft. I don'y believe that will be the case this season. Probably a safe projection is around 10-13. The WHIP, ERA will certainly rise but there is still alot to like.
Carlos Beltran-ADP 89(And sinking faster than the Titanic)
The Good-Beltran has a proven track record of being a very solid consistent performer who can help in all 5 fantasy categories. His only subpar season was 2005. If healthy just about as consistent a player in all of baseball.
The Bad-So does he come back in May?, June? the All Star Break? Who knows. Also the way his situation was handled was amateurish at best. I wonder if he will hold any long term animosity. I'm not a doctor but I know degenerative knee injuries can only get worse. Lastly Citi Field will cost him some home runs.
The Bottom Line-Since alot of our league is Met fans you know we will closely monitor his situation. If he keeps sinking maybe someone drafts him and DLs him and hopes for the best. As of now I'm not optimistic.
Brandon Webb-ADP 126
The Good-Webb has been quietly outstanding now for years. If you look at his peripheral stats they scream consistently excellent. Webb is a ground ball machine. And its mighty tough to hit a home run on a ground ball. Also Webb is in his contract year and also hinted at exploring the free agent market.
The Bad-Webb has started his throwing program and should be ready for the season BUT he is coming off major shoulder surgery. Maybe the injury was inevitable with Webb logging a heavy heavy workload. He pitched over 220 innings 4 years in a row.
The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring training. The D-Backs tend to be very conservative with their players so I'm sure Webb's workload will be carefully monitored. If even remotely healthy he does not last until 126. FYI Webb is always someone I've wanted on my team but every year someone seems to draft him right before me.
Jose Reyes-ADP 22
The Good-Reyes can steal 70 bases, score over 110 runs and hit 300. And with the spacious outfield Reyes's offensive numbers might even be better than at Shea(expect homers)
The Bad-Reyes makes his living with his legs and any leg injury that took that long to heal has to be worrisome. Also Reyes's maturity level was called into question last year.
The Bottom Line-If Jose looks totally healed in Spring Training there is no way he last until number 22 in our draft. He has first round ability. But there are definitely risks associated with Reyes in 2010
Grady Sizemore-ADP 25
The Good-When healthy Sizemore can help your team in 4 fantasy categories. Also if he cuts down his strikeout percentage his batting average will go up. His BABIP was a very low 276. Expect some regression there.
The Bad-Cleveland will not be a very good offensive team, which means his RBIs and Runs scored opportunities will be lower. BA has been lower the previous year for 4 straight years
The Bottom Line-I think Sizemore's ADP of 25 is probably about right. What pushes his value is his ability to get 30-40 steals. If healthy he won't hurt you.
Johan Santana-ADP 41
The Good-Santana was in the middle of a very good season last year. He had 17/25 QS. Also moving to Citi Field was a plus for a fly ball pitcher like Santana. His HR/FB was his best in 4 years.
The Bad-Like most pitchers on the wrong side of 30 Santana numbers are moving in the wrong direction. His Strikeout rate continues to drop slightly. While his walk rate continues to rise slightly. He just started throwing this week and says he will be fine. But any shoulder injury on a 31 year old pitcher leads to concern.
The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring Training. If he is healthy and continues the typical career path of a power pitcher is numbers may continue to go slightly in the wrong direction. But Johan is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In our league I don't think he makes pick 41.
Josh Hamilton-ADP 52
The Good-Hamilton has showed in spurts to have almost super human ability. Think Roy Hobbs with an addiction. He can easily put up first round numbers. Also hitting in the middle of a potent Texas lineup is a huge plus. And the cherry on top of the sundae is he plays in a terrific hitters park
The Bad-Not only to have have to worry about physical injuries you have to worry about all his other demons. He could be MVP or released in our league. 2008 was his only full productive season
The Bottom Line-Is there any player in all of MLB that we are more unsure of. In my opinion there is no way to project Hamilton. Truly do you feel lucky.
Jake Peavy-ADP 81
The Good-Of all the players on this list Peavy actually returned in 2009 and ended the season with three wins in his last three starts. Peavy's strikeouts per 9 innings has not dipped below 8.5 since 2003. And the Sox are built to win this year.
The Bad-Two big problems. 1.Petco is pitchers version of Disneyworld and the Cell is a very good hitters park. 2 The AL is a much tougher league to pitch in.
The Botton Line-Peavy was consistently one of the 5 pitchers taken in any draft. I don'y believe that will be the case this season. Probably a safe projection is around 10-13. The WHIP, ERA will certainly rise but there is still alot to like.
Carlos Beltran-ADP 89(And sinking faster than the Titanic)
The Good-Beltran has a proven track record of being a very solid consistent performer who can help in all 5 fantasy categories. His only subpar season was 2005. If healthy just about as consistent a player in all of baseball.
The Bad-So does he come back in May?, June? the All Star Break? Who knows. Also the way his situation was handled was amateurish at best. I wonder if he will hold any long term animosity. I'm not a doctor but I know degenerative knee injuries can only get worse. Lastly Citi Field will cost him some home runs.
The Bottom Line-Since alot of our league is Met fans you know we will closely monitor his situation. If he keeps sinking maybe someone drafts him and DLs him and hopes for the best. As of now I'm not optimistic.
Brandon Webb-ADP 126
The Good-Webb has been quietly outstanding now for years. If you look at his peripheral stats they scream consistently excellent. Webb is a ground ball machine. And its mighty tough to hit a home run on a ground ball. Also Webb is in his contract year and also hinted at exploring the free agent market.
The Bad-Webb has started his throwing program and should be ready for the season BUT he is coming off major shoulder surgery. Maybe the injury was inevitable with Webb logging a heavy heavy workload. He pitched over 220 innings 4 years in a row.
The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring training. The D-Backs tend to be very conservative with their players so I'm sure Webb's workload will be carefully monitored. If even remotely healthy he does not last until 126. FYI Webb is always someone I've wanted on my team but every year someone seems to draft him right before me.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Lists, Lists and more Lists
Everybody loves lists. Usually the more arcane the better. While killing time I thought I'd come up with various baseball lists. When I list the three selections in each list they are not necessarily in order.
If I owned a Team the Guys I'd choose to manage my team
1.Mike Scoascia-Angels
2.Joe Madden-Rays
3.Ron Gardenhire-Twins
If I owned a Team the Guys I'd choose to be my G.M.
1.Billy Beane-As
2.Theo Epstein-Red Sox
3.Dave Dumbrowski-Tigers
My Favorite Broadcasts
1.Arizona D-Backs-Mark Grace and Darren Sutton
2.New York Mets-Ron Darling, Keith Hernandez and Gary Cohen
3.LA Dodgers-Vin Scully and Vin Scully
The Stadiums I'd most like to visit that I've Never Been To
1.Wrigley Field-Chicago
2.SBC-San Francisco
3.Citi Field-New York
People I'd Send to a Desert Island
1.Jimmy Rollins
2.Tony LaRussa
3.Milton Bradley
If I Could Invite 3 Dead Baseball People to Dinner
1.Gil Hodges
2.Lou Gehrig
3.Shoeless Joe Jackson
If I Could Invite 3 Live Baseball People to Dinner
1.Mark Grace
2.Bill James
3.Nolan Ryan
Things I'd Change
1.Eliminate the DH
2.Enforce time limits in between pitches
3.A New Rule no more than 3 pitchers per inning
Things I Like
1.Wild Card
2.Inter League Play
3.Sweet Caroline
Things I Don't Like
1.The Wave
2.2-0 games that take 4 hours
3.All Yankee fans not from NY,NJ or Conn.
Hopefully you guys will comment with YOUR lists. It could be any of the ones I created of your own. Either way I'm looking forward to reading them.
If I owned a Team the Guys I'd choose to manage my team
1.Mike Scoascia-Angels
2.Joe Madden-Rays
3.Ron Gardenhire-Twins
If I owned a Team the Guys I'd choose to be my G.M.
1.Billy Beane-As
2.Theo Epstein-Red Sox
3.Dave Dumbrowski-Tigers
My Favorite Broadcasts
1.Arizona D-Backs-Mark Grace and Darren Sutton
2.New York Mets-Ron Darling, Keith Hernandez and Gary Cohen
3.LA Dodgers-Vin Scully and Vin Scully
The Stadiums I'd most like to visit that I've Never Been To
1.Wrigley Field-Chicago
2.SBC-San Francisco
3.Citi Field-New York
People I'd Send to a Desert Island
1.Jimmy Rollins
2.Tony LaRussa
3.Milton Bradley
If I Could Invite 3 Dead Baseball People to Dinner
1.Gil Hodges
2.Lou Gehrig
3.Shoeless Joe Jackson
If I Could Invite 3 Live Baseball People to Dinner
1.Mark Grace
2.Bill James
3.Nolan Ryan
Things I'd Change
1.Eliminate the DH
2.Enforce time limits in between pitches
3.A New Rule no more than 3 pitchers per inning
Things I Like
1.Wild Card
2.Inter League Play
3.Sweet Caroline
Things I Don't Like
1.The Wave
2.2-0 games that take 4 hours
3.All Yankee fans not from NY,NJ or Conn.
Hopefully you guys will comment with YOUR lists. It could be any of the ones I created of your own. Either way I'm looking forward to reading them.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
A Quick Political Thought
There is so much going on in the world of politics I could write everyday. But alas I believe most people that read this for the most part probably wouldn't care. BUT!!!!! every now and then something will happen and I will feel compelled to comment. With Pres. Obama about to deliver the State of the Union tomorrow night he visited a 6th grade classroom to talk to the students. So far so good right? Though what got my attention is not what we said but that he felt the need to bring a teleprompter into the classroom. Are you kidding me. The President can't even talk to a bunch of kids Daniel's age without the teleprompter. If George Bush did that we'd never hear the end of it. And I'm certain Ronald Reagen would never do that. Maybe if he REALLY believed in what he said he would not need a teleprompter.
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