PECOTAs-Crystal Ball-National League

If you are reading this before the piece on the AL I'd suggest you read the AL piece first so you can get a brief understanding just what this PECOTA thing is.

NL EAST

Philadelphia 88 74

Atlanta 83 79

Florida 81 81

New York 79 83

Washington 76 86


NL CENTRAL

St. Louis 84 78

Cincinnati 82 80

Chicago 79 83

Milwaukee 79 83

Houston 76 86

Pittsburgh 70 92


NL WEST

Arizona 87 75

Colorado 86 76

LA 83 79

San Fran 82 80

San Diego 71 91


HOME RUNS

Prince Fielder Milwaukee 41

Ryan Braun Milwaukee 37

Ryan Howard Phily 36

Albert Pujols St. Louis 33

Adam Dunn Wash 32

Adrian Gonzalez San Diego 32

Mark Reynolds Arizona 29

Troy Tulowitski Colorado 29

Joey Votto Cincy 29

Dan Uggla Florida 29


RBIs

Prince Fielder Milwaukee 112

Ryan Howard Phily 112

Albert Pujols St. Louis 109

Ryan Braun Milwaukee 104

Adrian Gonzalez San Diego 102

David Wright New York 101

Matt Holliday St. Louis 98

Ryan Ludwick St. Louis 98

Brandon Phillips Cincy 98

Carlos Lee Houston 98


BATTING AVERAGE

Hanley Ramirez Florida 326

Albert Pujols St. Louis 318

Pablo Sandoval San Fran 315

Placido Polanco Phily 304

David Wright New York 303

Martin Prado Atlanta 301

Yunel Escobar Atlanta 301

Jose Reyes New York 300

Troy Tulowitski Colorado 299

Carlos Lee Houston 299


RUNS

Chase Utley Phily 104

Hanley Ramirez Florida 101

Ryan Bruan Milwaukee 101

Troy Tulowitski Colorado 101

David Wright New York 99

Albert Pujols St. Louis 97

Michael Bourn Houston 96

Nate McCloth Atlanta 95

Kelly Johnson Arizona 93

Jimmy Rollins Phily 92

Brandon Phillips Cincy 92


STOLEN BASES

Michael Bourn Houston 52

Jose Reyes New York 45

Nyjer Morgan Pittsburgh 39

Everth Cabrera San Diego 33

Carlos Gomez Milwaukee 31

Jimmy Rollins Philadelphia 30

Matt Kemp Los Angeles 29

Hanley Ramirez Florida 27

Shane Victorino Philadelphia 25

Brandon Phillips Cincy 25

Alcides Escobar Milwaukee 25


So what do you guys think? I'd love to get your input.

PECOTAs Crystal Ball-American League

My favorite web site is baseballprospectus.com. The writers on this site do a better job than anyone I know analyzing baseball. But the site is not for everyone. If you are literate in the language of BABIP, FIP, VORP and their signature projection system called PECOTA you'd probably enjoy it more. PECOTA stands for player empirical comparsion and optimization test algorithm. Quite a mouthful huh. I really can't fully explain how it works, but it DOES. Of course its not 100%. But year after year its by far the most accurate predictive system. The prediction that seemed to get the main streams attention was 2 seasons ago after finishing with only 66 wins PECOTA tabbed the Rays to finish with 90 wins and make the playoffs. While most of us in Florida knew the Rays were improving, 90 wins seemed like a pike dream. The rational was the Rays went from the worst defensive team to one that should be very much improved by getting Jason Bartlett, moving BJ Upton to center, moving Iwamura to second. And they for saw Longo taking over third very early in the season. They predicted this unit would become an over average fielding unit. Which in turn would help the young pitchers. And they hit it right on the nose. This is just one of many things I could point to. So this week when BP released its early PECOTA forecasts I thought it would be interesting to post the predictions and get your feedback. The first thing the suprised me about the AL predictions was no shockers. PECOTA usually hits one underdog. The three best teams are in one division. The biggest surprise alot will find is the outcome of the shortstack. So without further ado here are the predicted standings as of Feb.1 and the top 10 in each of the 5 fantasy categories. I'll do the NL next. And when they have their final predictions right before the season I'll post those.





AL EAST


New York 94 68


Boston 92 70


Tampa 90 72


Baltimore 80 82


Toronto 72 90





AL CENTRAL


Minnesota 83 79


Chicago 80 82


Detroit 78 84


Cleveland 76 86


KC 75 87








AL WEST


Texas 87 75


LA Angels 80 82


Oakland 80 82


Seattle 77 85








Homeruns


Miguel Cabrera Det. 39


Alex Rodriguez NY. 38


Evan Longoria Tam 36


Mark Teixeira NY 34


Carlos Pena Tam 34


Nelson Cruz Tex 31


Chris Davis Tex 31


Justin Morneau Min 29


Josh Hamilton Tex 29


Ian Kinsler Tex 29





RBIs



Mark Teixeira NY 112



Justin Morneau Min 105



Miguel Cabrera Det 105



Alex Rodriguez NY 104



Evan Longoria TB 100



Nick Markakis Balt 93



Josh Hamiton Tex 92



Kevin Kouzmanoff Oak 88



Carlos Pena TB 88



Adam Lind Tor 88





Batting Average



Joe Mauer Min 317



Ichiro Sea 316



Dustin Pedroia Bos 313



Nick Markakis Balt 304



Magglio Ordonez Det 303



Miguel Cabrera Det 302



Vladimir Guerrero Tex 301



Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 297



Carl Crawford TB 297



Billy Butler KC 297



Howie Kendrick LA 297


RUNS

Ian Kinsler Tex 111

Dustin Pedroia Bos 106

Evan Longoria TB 94

Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 93

Carl Crawford TB 93

Brian Roberts Bal 93

Chone Figgins Sea 93

Curtis Granderson NY 91

Mark Teixeira NY 91

Alex Rodriguez NY 91


STOLEN BASES

Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 51

Carl Crawford TB 48

Chone Figgins Sea 40

Juan Pierre Chi 40

Rajai Davis Oak 38

BJ Upton TB 37

Brian Roberts Bal 37

Brett Gardner NY 36

Elvis Andrus Tex 36

Ian Kinsler Tex 30


So what do you guys think? Please comment on what you think PECOTA got right and what they got wrong.

Fearless Superbowl Prediction

Since my performance in fantasy football has been perfectly mediocre I would not take my word and run to Vegas with this prediction.

Indy 27 New Orleans 20

Anybody else want to take a stab at guessing.

NY vs. FL

The differences between NY and Florida can fill up volumes of books. For the most part I don't miss NY. But when it comes to covering sports there is no comparsion. Here we are Thursday Feb. 4 and here are the two top sports stories in the Sunshine State

1.National College Football Signing Day

2.First NASCAR practice of the season.

It ALMOST makes me miss the snow and cold.