Do You Feel Lucky?

As we are only a few hours from February the sounds of bats and balls are just around the corner. Which also means Fantasy Baseball is also just around the corner. I was thinking today there are a considerable amount of players who were drafted very high last season who had their season derailed by injury. Those players pose a huge question mark on where they might go in our draft. As I think back to last year the big question was when would A-Rod go. This year I've identified 7 players whose draft status is very questionable due to injury. By the way the number next to the player is his average draft position currently on mockdraftcentral.com







Jose Reyes-ADP 22



The Good-Reyes can steal 70 bases, score over 110 runs and hit 300. And with the spacious outfield Reyes's offensive numbers might even be better than at Shea(expect homers)



The Bad-Reyes makes his living with his legs and any leg injury that took that long to heal has to be worrisome. Also Reyes's maturity level was called into question last year.



The Bottom Line-If Jose looks totally healed in Spring Training there is no way he last until number 22 in our draft. He has first round ability. But there are definitely risks associated with Reyes in 2010





Grady Sizemore-ADP 25



The Good-When healthy Sizemore can help your team in 4 fantasy categories. Also if he cuts down his strikeout percentage his batting average will go up. His BABIP was a very low 276. Expect some regression there.



The Bad-Cleveland will not be a very good offensive team, which means his RBIs and Runs scored opportunities will be lower. BA has been lower the previous year for 4 straight years



The Bottom Line-I think Sizemore's ADP of 25 is probably about right. What pushes his value is his ability to get 30-40 steals. If healthy he won't hurt you.





Johan Santana-ADP 41



The Good-Santana was in the middle of a very good season last year. He had 17/25 QS. Also moving to Citi Field was a plus for a fly ball pitcher like Santana. His HR/FB was his best in 4 years.



The Bad-Like most pitchers on the wrong side of 30 Santana numbers are moving in the wrong direction. His Strikeout rate continues to drop slightly. While his walk rate continues to rise slightly. He just started throwing this week and says he will be fine. But any shoulder injury on a 31 year old pitcher leads to concern.



The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring Training. If he is healthy and continues the typical career path of a power pitcher is numbers may continue to go slightly in the wrong direction. But Johan is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In our league I don't think he makes pick 41.


Josh Hamilton-ADP 52

The Good-Hamilton has showed in spurts to have almost super human ability. Think Roy Hobbs with an addiction. He can easily put up first round numbers. Also hitting in the middle of a potent Texas lineup is a huge plus. And the cherry on top of the sundae is he plays in a terrific hitters park

The Bad-Not only to have have to worry about physical injuries you have to worry about all his other demons. He could be MVP or released in our league. 2008 was his only full productive season

The Bottom Line-Is there any player in all of MLB that we are more unsure of. In my opinion there is no way to project Hamilton. Truly do you feel lucky.


Jake Peavy-ADP 81

The Good-Of all the players on this list Peavy actually returned in 2009 and ended the season with three wins in his last three starts. Peavy's strikeouts per 9 innings has not dipped below 8.5 since 2003. And the Sox are built to win this year.

The Bad-Two big problems. 1.Petco is pitchers version of Disneyworld and the Cell is a very good hitters park. 2 The AL is a much tougher league to pitch in.

The Botton Line-Peavy was consistently one of the 5 pitchers taken in any draft. I don'y believe that will be the case this season. Probably a safe projection is around 10-13. The WHIP, ERA will certainly rise but there is still alot to like.


Carlos Beltran-ADP 89(And sinking faster than the Titanic)

The Good-Beltran has a proven track record of being a very solid consistent performer who can help in all 5 fantasy categories. His only subpar season was 2005. If healthy just about as consistent a player in all of baseball.

The Bad-So does he come back in May?, June? the All Star Break? Who knows. Also the way his situation was handled was amateurish at best. I wonder if he will hold any long term animosity. I'm not a doctor but I know degenerative knee injuries can only get worse. Lastly Citi Field will cost him some home runs.

The Bottom Line-Since alot of our league is Met fans you know we will closely monitor his situation. If he keeps sinking maybe someone drafts him and DLs him and hopes for the best. As of now I'm not optimistic.


Brandon Webb-ADP 126

The Good-Webb has been quietly outstanding now for years. If you look at his peripheral stats they scream consistently excellent. Webb is a ground ball machine. And its mighty tough to hit a home run on a ground ball. Also Webb is in his contract year and also hinted at exploring the free agent market.

The Bad-Webb has started his throwing program and should be ready for the season BUT he is coming off major shoulder surgery. Maybe the injury was inevitable with Webb logging a heavy heavy workload. He pitched over 220 innings 4 years in a row.

The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring training. The D-Backs tend to be very conservative with their players so I'm sure Webb's workload will be carefully monitored. If even remotely healthy he does not last until 126. FYI Webb is always someone I've wanted on my team but every year someone seems to draft him right before me.

Lists, Lists and more Lists

Everybody loves lists. Usually the more arcane the better. While killing time I thought I'd come up with various baseball lists. When I list the three selections in each list they are not necessarily in order.



If I owned a Team the Guys I'd choose to manage my team

1.Mike Scoascia-Angels

2.Joe Madden-Rays

3.Ron Gardenhire-Twins



If I owned a Team the Guys I'd choose to be my G.M.

1.Billy Beane-As

2.Theo Epstein-Red Sox

3.Dave Dumbrowski-Tigers



My Favorite Broadcasts

1.Arizona D-Backs-Mark Grace and Darren Sutton

2.New York Mets-Ron Darling, Keith Hernandez and Gary Cohen

3.LA Dodgers-Vin Scully and Vin Scully



The Stadiums I'd most like to visit that I've Never Been To

1.Wrigley Field-Chicago

2.SBC-San Francisco

3.Citi Field-New York

People I'd Send to a Desert Island

1.Jimmy Rollins

2.Tony LaRussa

3.Milton Bradley

If I Could Invite 3 Dead Baseball People to Dinner

1.Gil Hodges

2.Lou Gehrig

3.Shoeless Joe Jackson

If I Could Invite 3 Live Baseball People to Dinner

1.Mark Grace

2.Bill James

3.Nolan Ryan

Things I'd Change

1.Eliminate the DH

2.Enforce time limits in between pitches

3.A New Rule no more than 3 pitchers per inning

Things I Like

1.Wild Card

2.Inter League Play

3.Sweet Caroline

Things I Don't Like

1.The Wave

2.2-0 games that take 4 hours

3.All Yankee fans not from NY,NJ or Conn.


Hopefully you guys will comment with YOUR lists. It could be any of the ones I created of your own. Either way I'm looking forward to reading them.

A Quick Political Thought

There is so much going on in the world of politics I could write everyday. But alas I believe most people that read this for the most part probably wouldn't care. BUT!!!!! every now and then something will happen and I will feel compelled to comment. With Pres. Obama about to deliver the State of the Union tomorrow night he visited a 6th grade classroom to talk to the students. So far so good right? Though what got my attention is not what we said but that he felt the need to bring a teleprompter into the classroom. Are you kidding me. The President can't even talk to a bunch of kids Daniel's age without the teleprompter. If George Bush did that we'd never hear the end of it. And I'm certain Ronald Reagen would never do that. Maybe if he REALLY believed in what he said he would not need a teleprompter.

AL West-In Case You Missed It

2009 was a typical year for the short stack as the Angels won easily, outlasting Texas by 10 and Seattle by 12. There has been alot of changes on all 4 teams. So did the Halos put themselves in a position to win again?

Los Angeles Angels(or whatever they are called today) 97-65
Arrivals
Hideki Matsui and Fernando Rodney

Departures
Darren Oliver, Chone Figgins, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Vladimir Guerrero

Free Agents
Rob Quinlan

To quote Bob Dylan the times they are a changin. Long time Angels Chone Figgins, John Lackey and Vlad Guerreo are now gone. Rodney after a great season closing will set up Brian Fuentes. And World Series MVP Hideki Matsui comes west. I'm skeptical. A step back.

Oakland As 75-87
Arrivals
Coco Crisp, Jake Fox, Aaron Miles, Michael Taylor, Lenny Dinardo and Ben Sheets

Departures
Bobby Crosby, Jeff Gray and Jay Marshall

Free Agents
Adam Kennedy, Brett Tomko and Nomar Garciaparra

A brief word about the As signing of Ben Sheets. On the surface it may seem surprising that a last place, very low budget team would shell out a reported $10 million dollars for a huge question mark. But this move is typical Billy Beane. If Sheets truly is healthy he will be dealt around the trading deadline. So the As probably will only have to pay around $5 mil. And will probably get some top prospects back. And if Billy Beane said he looked good and healthy I trust him. The As will be the worst team in the AL West this year. But they are amassing alot of young talent, especially pitchers. Haven't we seen this before?

Seattle Mariners 85-77
Arrivals
Brandon League, Milton Bradley, Yusmeiro Petit, Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee, Eliazor Alfonso, Cory Patterson, Josh Bard, Casey Kotchman and Chris Woodward

Departures
Brandon Morrow, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima, Justin Thomas, Chris Jakubauskas, Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall

Free Agents
Erik Bedard, Miguel Batista, Mike Sweeney, Russell Branyon and Endy Chavez

Wow thats alot of changes. I'll give Jack Zduriencik a A for effort. Actually it seems Seattle is the en vogue selection to win the AL West this year. The Cliff Lee-Felix Hernandez combo is much better than any duo in the division. I really liked almost everything they did except getting Milton Bradley. A few more wins this season for the Ms.

Texas Rangers 87-75
Arrivals
Rich Harden, Darren Oliver, Chris Ray, Joe Inglett, Matt Brown, Vladimir Guerreo and Khalil Greene

Departures
Kevin Millwood, Ivan Rodriguez, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Eddie Guardado and Marlon Byrd

Free Agents
Joaquin Benoit and Hank Blaylock

Alot has changed in Texas. Many vets are now gone and it seems the Rangers are ready to make a run with a nice mix of young talent are a very solid nucleus. Letting all vets go should also free up payroll so if the Rangers are close they may be able to pick up a player at the trading deadline(Ben Sheets, perhaps). With a group headed by Nolan Ryan poised to purchase the Rangers they should be in good hands. Just a hypothetical question. If Nolan Ryan activated himself who starts on opening day Ryan or Rich Harden?

AL Central-In Case You Missed It

Last year 162 games was not enough to decide a winner to the AL Central. Detroit controlled the division for most of the year but in the end it was the Twins who won the championship. Only two of the five teams were above .500. And two teams lost more than 95 games. This is a truly mediocre group. Lets see who's better.

Chicago White Sox 79-83
Arrivals
Mark Teahan, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, JJ Putz, Juan Pierra and Freddy Dolsi

Departures
Dewayne Wise, Scott Posednick and DJ Carrasco

Free Agents
Jermaine Dye and Octavio Dotel

The White Sox must have been listening to the Grass Roots because they definitely are Living For Today. These pickups are for a run at the division this season. Also don't forget they picked up Jake Peavy and Alex Rios during last season. They are now the class of the weak division.

Cleveland Indians 65-97
Arrivals
Mike Redmond, Mark Grudzielanek, Mitch Talbot, Saul Rivera, Austin Kearns and Shelly Duncan

Departures
Kelly Shoppach and Jamey Carroll

Free Agents
Tomo Okra and Jose Veras

If the Tribe are done they have done nothing to help themselves. Management gave up on this team fairly early last season and must think 2010 will be a lost year. Hopefully as we speak they are thinking about adding some lower cost talent. As of now a truly awful pitching staff.

Detroit Tigers 86-77
Arrivals
Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, Austin Jackson, Phil Dumatrait and Jose Valverde

Departures
Brandon Lyon, Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, Placido Polonco, Dusty Ryan, Freddy Dolsi, Matt Treanor, Frenando Rodney and Aubrey Huff

Free Agents
Jared Washburn and Marcus Thames

The Tigers certainly took a step back this off season. BUT with that being said Detroit helped the ballclub for the future. Scherzer will be alot better than Edwin Jackson. Baseball people love Austin Jackson. Scott Sizemore will take over for Polonco. Shedding all that payroll puts them in position to add bats to a rotation that should be outstanding for many years.

Kansas City Royals 65-97
Arrivals
Chris Getz, Jason Kendall, Josh Fields, Brian Anderson, Matt Herges, Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel

Departures
Coco Crisp, Mark Teahan, Yasuhiko Yabuta, Tug Huglett, John Buck, Miguel Olivio and Josh Anderson

Free Agents
Jamey Wright, Doug Waechter, Bruce Chen and Lenny Dinardo

I really thought KC was on the verge of turning things around. Then Zack Grienke has a breakout season and everything else went to hell. And this off season they are heading backwards. The only player who might really help is Rick Ankiel. The rotation has no lefties. There is help in the minors but its probably a few years away

Minnesota Twins 87-76
Arrivals
JJ Hardy, Mike Maroth and Clay Coundry

Departures
Phillip Humber, Boof Bonser, Carlos Gomez, Armando Gabino, Justin Huber, Juan Morillo, Booby Keppel and Mike Redmond

Free Agents
Ron Mahay, Orlando Cabrera and Joe Crede

The biggest arrival for the Twins this year will be their new ballpark Target Field. The dimensions for the new park will be similar to the Metrodome. After almost 30 years the Metrodome's reputation as the homer dome turned out to be a misnomer. The park played very neutral. Being an outdoor park in Minnesota weather will play a large part in early and late season games. As for the team on the field the only big move was trading Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy. Hardy could use a change of scenery and moving Gomez gives Denard Span an everyday job. The Twins will probably win most games than you'd expect. Like every year.

AL East-In Case You Missed It

2009 was like most previous seasons with the Yankees and the Red Sox battling it out while the other 3 teams lagged behind. With 103 wins the Yankees were clearly the best in baseball last season. Mark Teixeira was every bit as good as advertised. And Sabathia was also very good. Even AJ Burnett did not break down. Kudos for Brian Cashman for spending money on the RIGHT guys. While I fully expect Burnett to break down this year Tex will be a great player. So what has the winter brought?



Baltimore Orioles 64-98

Arrivals

Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Millwood, Armando Gorbino, Michael Hernandez, Craig Tatum and Garrett Atkins



Departures

Chris Ray, Sean Penn, Radhammes Liz, Danys Baez and Brian Bass



Free Agents

Melvin Mora, Mark Hendrickson, Rich Hill and Jeff Fiorentino



I like what the Os did alot for a few reasons. Mostly they recognized Melvin Mora has outlived his use. Also the name guys they signed like Garrett Atkins and Kevin Millwood could help them be competetive this year. Getting a few vets to help the kids mature will be very helpful. Baltimore rotation will feature some very young but very talented young pitchers and having a core of offensive players should help their confidence level if they start to lose games. The future is VERY bright. A quick word about Rich Hill. Remember two seasons ago when he was on the verge of stardom? What happened????



Boston Red Sox 95-67

Arrivals

Boof Bonser, Marco Scuturo, Jeremy Hermedia, Tug Huglett, John Lackey, Adrian Beltre, Bill Hall and Mike Cameron



Departures

Hunter Jones, George Kottoras, Alex Gonzalez, Billy Wagner, Takeshi Saito, Brian Anderson, Jason Bay, Casey Kotchman and Nick Green



Free Agents

Rocco Baldelli and Paul Byrd



That's alot of changes to a 95 win team. But it seems Red Sox nation only cares about one thing, are those changes enough to beat the Yankees? Probably not. Sorry!! This is a very good team that will certainly compete for a playoff spot. Adding Lackey gives the BoSox a fantastic rotation. But the big weakness is a definite lack of power from the outfield. I would not be surprised if Theo Epstein pulls of a major trade to address that weakness during the season.



New York Yankees 103-59

Arrivals

Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson



Departures

Milky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Phil Coke, Austin Jackson, Brian Bruney, Josh Towers, Hideki Matsui and Eric Hinske



Free Agents

Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr., Freddy Guzman and C.M. Wang



This has been the quietest off season the Yanks have had in a long time. I guess that's what winning the World Series will do. Simply put they sacrificed some of their future for some immeadiate help. Granderson while not a perfect player has a power/speed combination that's tough to find. He is also still young with room to grow. Vazquez is a quality starter who will slip into the middle of the Yanks rotation. Letting vets like Damon and Wang go make sense to me. As for all the prospects they traded. The Yanks are in a unique position where they could do this because they have a nearly unlimited source of payroll if they ever need something they could go out and get it. While it might not be the best strategy financially the Yanks have that luxury.



Tampa Bay Rays 84-78

Arrivals

Rafael Soriano, Ramon Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach and Dan Johnson



Departures

Jesse Chavez, Akinori Iwamura, Greg Zaun and Michel Hernandez



Free Agents

Chad Bradford, Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Russ Springer, Brian Shouse, Gabe Gross and Shawn Riggans



Minor changes for the Rays. Moving Iwamura gives 2nd base to Ben Zobrist. Kelly Shoppach will catch with Dionar Navarro. And the bullpen has been tweaked. Soriano has been tabbed to be the closer. But health issues have plagued his career. Joe Maddon does as good a job as any manager in baseball when it comes to managing his pen. Even if Soriano does get hurt JP Howell, Grant Balfour and company are still around.



Toronto Blue Jays 75-87

Arrivals

Brandon Morrow, Joey Gaithright, Sean Henn, Jarrett Hoffpaier, Mike McCoy, Alex Gonzalez, John Buck, Brett Wallace and Zach Jackson



Departures

Brandon League, Marco Scuuturo, Joe Inglett and ROY HALLADAY!!!!!!

Free Agents
Rod Barajas and Kevin Millar

Not much to say about the Jays. Losing Halladay makes them considerably worse. While I understand he was not going to resign I'm stunned they did not get more back in that 3 team deal. Brett Wallace is a stud 3rd base prospect and Kyle Drabek(yes Doug's son, do you feel old?) supposedly has a great arm but if the Jays wanted to be competitive they needed to get some MLB ready talent back. They are a long way behind everyone.

NL West-What you might have missed

Going into last season not too many people would have thought that three teams from the NL west would have won 88 games. And none of those three teams have games called by Mark Grace. LA won the division but Colorado was the story. No one could have envisioned the Rox winning 92 games and going to the playoffs. So who improved at who worse?

Arizona Diamondbacks 70-92
Arrivals
Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Tony Abreau, Aaron Heilman, Bobby Howry, Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche

Departures
Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlerth and Josh Whitesell

Free Agents
Doug Davis, Scott Schoenweiss and Chad Tracy

The Snakes have seemed to approached this off season like contenders and not a 92 loss team. They have brought in vets like Johnson, LaRouche, Jackson and Howry. I really believe this team is very close. To get Jackson and Kennedy they had to part with Max Scherzer. Scherzer has great stuff and will be a big winner some day some. Arizona will play meaningful September games.

Colorado Rockies 92-70
Arrivals
Miguel Olivio

Departures
Matt Murton,Mike McCoy, Garrett Atkins, Joel Peralta, Ryan Speier, Jason Marquis and Matt Herges

Free Agents
Alan Embree, Yorvit Torrealba, Josh Fogg, Jason Giambi, Joe Beimel and Jose Contreras

Its midnight Cinderella! I would not be shocked if Arizona wins the 92 games Colorado won and Colorado wins the 70 games that Arizona won. Marquis was very solid for them last season. And while none of the other players they lost except Atkins played a big part in their past success they lost depth. Essentially Olivio will play the Torrealba role. A big step back

Los Angeles Dodgers 95-67
Arrivals
Josh Towers, Jamey Carroll, Justin Miller and Nick Green

Departures
Randy Wolf, Juan Castro and Juan Pierre

Free Agents
Brad Ausmus, Jon Garland, Eric Milton, Vincente Padilla, Jeff Weaver, Ronnie Belliard, Orlando Hudson, Mark Loretta, Jim Thome, Guillermo Mota and Will Ohman

Wow thats alot of names. I could only think LA is saving some payroll to acquire some players at the deadline. They are also starting to lock up their young players. The Dodgers as of now have taken a step back. But with that being said the future is looking bright because of their young stars.

San Diego Padres 75-87
Arrivals
Radhames Liz, Dusty Ryan and Scott Hairston

Departures
Henry Blanco, Luis Rodriguez, Elizer Alfonzo, Edgar Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff

Free Agents
Brian Giles, Cliff Floyd, Cha Seung Boek and Shaun Hill

San Diego has astutely recognized they are in full rebuilding mode. They are going to be a young team. I don't expect anything out of the Pads this season. I believe the biggest question they will have to tackle is should they deal Adrian Gonzalez. Simply put I think they should for as many prospects as possible.

San Francisco Giants 88-74
Arrivals
Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff

Departures
Brad Penny, Justin Miller, Bobby Howry and Randy Johnson

Free Agents
Rich Aurilla, Randy Winn and Noah Lowry(Pepperdine, right???!!)

The Giants needed a 1st baseman and got Huff. Mark DeRosa is a very valuable player especially on a good team. They lost some long time Giants like Rich Aurilla and Randy Winn. This team is very close. I would not be shocked at all if they get one more big bat during season and make a run for the division. Today's resigning of Bengie Molina makes alot of sense for them. It gives Buster Possey one more year to develop. It makes sense for Adrian Gonzalez to take a trip north to SF.

NL Central-What you might have missed

As Oct. rolled around last year St. Louis was running away from everyone. Last season just about the entire division had very disappointing seasons. Only the Cards and Cubs finished above .500. So who's better and who's worse?





Chicago Cubs 83-79


Arrivals


Carlos Silva, Jeff Gray and Marlon Byrd





Departures


Milton Bradley, Rich Harden, Jake Fox, Aaron Miles and Neal Cotts





Free Agents


Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson, Chad Fox and So Taguchi





A mixed bag. Losing Milton Bradley is addition by subtraction. But how can any team overcome losing Rich Harden??? They also lost some depth of their bunch. Marlon Byrd is a decent addition. And I'm not crazy about Silva. I thought this was the best team in the NL going into last season. 83 wins was a disappointment. As a whole they have taken a small step back.





Cincinnati Reds 78-84


Arrivals


Aroldis Chapman, Josh Anderson





Departures


Craig Tatum, Danny Richar





Free Agents


Kip Wells and Johnny Gomes





In my eyes one of the most disappointing teams in 2009. I thought they were at least a .500 team. When Cincinnati signed the Cuban defector it shocked alot of people. Is he worth the 25-30 mil? No one who for sure. Frankly it was a huge risk. And I don't think it was wise to invest so much payroll on a unproven talent. Most experts think he is not as good as Steven Strasburg.





Houston Astros 74-88


Arrivals


Matt Lindstrom, Pedro Feliz, Brandon Lyon and Brett Myers





Departures


LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Coste and Jose Valverde





Free Agents


Mike Hampton, Miguel Tejada, Darin Erstad, Aaron Boone and Doug Brocail





Every year is seems one team invests millions of dollars on guaranteed contracts on mediocre players, This years winners are the Astros. This is a team that should face the facts that they should be in full rebuilding mode. Adding all those FA means maybe they win 75 games instead of 70.





Milwaukee Brewers 80-82


Arrivals


Randy Wolf, LaTroy Hawkins, Carlos Gomez, George Kottaras and Matt Treanor





Departures


J.J.Hardy, Jason Bougeois, Jason Kendall, Mike Cameron and Cory Patterson





Free Agents


Felipe Lopez, Frank Catalonotto, David Weathers, Braden Looper, Seth McClung and Mike Rivera



Milwaukee is loaded with young talent. The two big off season moves were 1.getting a proven starter in Randy Wolf and second the swap with Minnesota sending JJ Hardy to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez. Gomez gives them speed and alot of range in center. Apparently the Brewers gave up on Hardy and are ready to hand the SS job to Alcides Escobar. This will be a very interesting team.

Pittsburgh Pirates 62-99
Arrivals
Bobby Crosby, Akinori Iwamura, Chris Jakubakas, Javier Lopez, Ryan Chursch, DJ Carrasco and Brian Bass

Departures
Jose Chavez, Phil Dumatrait and Matt Capps

Free Agents
None

I really like what the Bucs did. They brought in many guys who might help them be competitive now. While not committing alot of payroll. All the players they picked up will probably be short term solutions. Another common theme in their off season pickups is players in which a change of scenery might help. Make no mistake this team will not contend in 2010. But they will should not lose 100 games.

St. Louis Cardinals 91-71
Arrivals
Brad Penny

Departures
Brad Thompson, Joe Thurston, Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Khalil Greene

Free Agents
Joel Pineiro, Todd wellemeyer, John Smoltz and Rick Ankiel

The biggest off season move was to re-sign Matt Holliday. I have no problem letting everyone go to have enough money to sign Holliday. Not resigning Pineiro to a long term deal was the right decision as you never want to over pay for a career year. Penny was very solid down the stretch for San Fran last year. The combination of Pujols and Holliday should be devastating. St. Louis accomplished what they needed to do this off season. They won't run away this year. But another 90 win season seems in the Cards.

A Yankee??????

As some of you might know there is going to be a very important election tomorrow(Tuesday) in Massachusetts. The election is to fill the seat that the late Teddy Kennedy held for 3 million years. The other day on the campaign trail the democratic contender Martha Coakley, during a interview said Curt Shilling was a Yankee fan. Just that insanely stupid comment alone should disqualify her from representing the fine people of Massachusttes. So Red Sox nation elect Scott Brown.

Rafael Palmeiro-Last Word On Steriods

Before I talk about Palmeiro I need to talk briefly about career arc and how players age. This will make sense when I talk about Palmeiro. Since we have over 100 years of baseball stats we have learned how a player ages, especially batters. As a general rule players performance improves until they reach a peak at their age 27 season. They then have close to peak performance for a couple of years and then their performance deteriorates into their 30s. Not every player follows this rule but its been proven to be close to a statistically fact. There are two situations that may have an effect on this rule 1.If a players home park changes-this is an obvious one. Anyone who goes say from Coors to Petco will see a drip in their numbers regardless of age. 2.If a player gets traded to a team with a much better lineup that scores alot more runs

So what does this have to do with Rafael Palmeiro? Yesterday I was talking with Howie about players from the steroid era and if they should be considered for the Hall of Fame. He brought up Palmeiro and said he has two magic numbers for the hall, 3000 hits and 500 Homers. I said Palmeiro is difficult to evaluate because we don't know when he started juicing. In a moment of brillance he said why don't you check to see when Jose Canseco got traded to Texas? What I found was very interesting. So without further ado, just the facts

Palmeiro started playing everyday with the Cubs on his age 23 season. For the next couple of years, between his age 23-27 season he averaged 16HRs 77RBIs 361OBA 449SLG Then in 1993 Canseco joined Palmeiro in Texas. For the next 10 seasons, his age 28-37 seasons he averaged 39HRs 115RBIs 382OBA 561 SLG. This career arc is VERY rare. Actually it almost never happens. As for his ballparks he went from one good hitters park to another. And both offenses were pretty similar.

So looking at this if I was a betting man I'd say Palmeiro started juicing in 1993. If his career followed a normal pattern a good comp would have been Mark Grace. Palmeiro probably would have hit for slightly more power. But Grace was a much better defensive 1st basemen. So as much as I like Gracie hes no Hall of Famer

NL EAST-What you might have missed

Since most sports fans turn their attention to football or hockey after the last pitch of the World Series I figured I'll catch everyone up on what you might have missed. What I'm going to do is go over each division and tell you who each team has signed , who they lost and which free agents they have. And then a quick comment on if I think they are in better shape now than when they ended the season.

Atlanta Braves 86-76
Arrivals
Jesse Chavez, Scott Proctor, Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Milky Cabrera, Joe Thurston, Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske

Departures
Rafael Soriano, Buddy Carlyle, Jorge Campillo, Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Church and Adam LaRoche

Free Agents
Garrett Anderson, Mike Gonzalez, Greg Norton and Vladimir Nunez

As of now I don't like what the Braves have done. I definitely would not have traded Vazquez and Logan for Cabrera. It also appears they are turning the bullpen but bringing in Wagner after major surgery along with Saito and Proctor is not the answer. Troy Glaus has not been healthy for 2 seasons. Leaving are some good productive players like Adam Laroche, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Church and Rafael Soriano

Florida Marlins 87-75
Arrivals
Hunter Jones, Danny Richar

Departures
Nick Johnson, Ross Gload, Matt Lindstrom, Jeremy Hermedia and Scott Proctot

Free Agents
Brendon Donelly, Kiko Calero and Alfredo Amezaga

So Florida has not done much of anything. Such is life for a team with no payroll. The big decision they have to make before spring training starts is will they deal Dan Uggla.

New York Mets 70-92
Arrivals
Chris Coste, Henry Blanco, Ryota Igarashi, Kelvim Escobar, Jason Bay and Jay Marshall

Departures
Brian Schneider, JJ Putz and Ken Takahashi

Free Agents
Carlos Delgado, Fernando Tatis, Gary Sheffield, Ramon Martinez, Tim Redding, Jeremy Reed and Cory Sullivan

Getting Jason Bay is a very good start. But just that a start. Lets face. it this is a contending team when everyone is healthy. As of now they flipped Schneider for Blanco and Coste. But word has it Bengie Molina will sign this week. Now they need to go out and get some starting pitching. The Carlos Beltran situation was a fiasco and good organizations should have never let that happen.

Philadelphia Phillies 93-69
Arrivals
Ross Gload, Brian Schneider, Placido Polanco, Juan Castro Roy Halladay and Deny Baez

Departures
Pedro Feliz, Cliff Lee, Eric Brutlett, Scott Eyre and Brett Myers

Free Agents
Pedro Martinez, Chan Ho Park, Matt Stairs, Miguel Cairo, Paul Bako and Chris Condrey

The Phils got one of the best pitchers and toughest competitors in all of baseball by getting Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee is good but Halladay is definately a notch above. Polanco for Feliz is not much difference. The Phils in the next month need to fill in their bullpen. Still the class of the division by far.

Washington Nationals 59-103
Arrivals
Ivan Rodriguez, Brian Bruney, Doug Slaton, Jason Marquis, Eddie Guardado, Matt Capps, Eric Bruntlett and Jason Whitesell

Departures
Saul Rivera, Josh Bard and Austin Kearns

Free Agents
Dmitri Young,Ron Villone, Livan Hernandez and Mike MacDougal

A very surprising off season for the Nats. Usually terrible teams like this are not so aggressive in the free agent market unless they have a core of kids that make them close to contention. Which is not the case with them. I don't understand why Marquis, a New York guy is not a Met. And Matt Capps would have been a nice addition in Flushing. Anyway they will be better than last year.

Hall of Fame/Shame

The Baseball Hall of Fame is an incredible place. If I was to die tomorrow at least part of today would be spend in Cooperstown. It was the destination of the first Hirsch family vacation almost 40 years ago. Its more than just a Hall of Fame for me. So consequentially I think I care I care about the HOF more than most. And what got me thinking about the HOF this week was Mark McGwire's slightly less than stunning confession he used Steroids throughout his career. McGwire finally admitting he juiced is akin the pope to admitting he's catholic. What I found interesting is McGwire came clean days after the voting for this years HOF was announced. McGwire received about 25% for the third straight year. I think its inconceivable that he will ever get up to 75% from the writers. I believe this is critical because it sets a precedent for other players from the Steroids era. Simply put if McGwire doesn't get in how can you put in Bonds, Sosa, Palmeiro, Clemens etc can't get in. I think most people would be okay with this. But what I was thinking about is since the HOF is suppose to be a complete history of baseball how do we address the history of the game during the steroids era?

As the steroids era started in the late 80s I think I was like most fans and did think much of the size of the players. But for those of us old enough to remember the 89 As do you remember how huge they were? If you threw out Walt Weiss they were every bit as big as the Raiders. Looking back it was during the 90s when things got out of control. And I'll admit I had no clue. After the strike in 1994 baseball was probably at its second lowest point in the games history after the 1919 Black Sox Scandal. Most people had a very negative opinion right up until the magical season of 1998. During that summer people started to care again. Why? Because McGwire and Sosa started hitting homers with more frequency and further than ever before. I can't recall once during that time anyone saying all those homers were a result of better baseball through chemistry. People inside of baseball had to know. And they made a conscious decision to turn their backs on a growing problem because people were returning to the park and TV ratings were soaring. McGwire hitting 70 homers was a shocking number!!! Also think about how far some of the those traveled, it was like a video game. Then just a few years later Bonds hits 73. At this point I think we all knew something was up. Then once of the worst days in baseball history. That dreadful day in front of congress when Sammy Sosa forgot to speak English, Rafael Palmeiro shock his finger and Mark McGwire just did not speak. My how far we fallen. Again which brings me to my original point what should the HOF do about this point in history?

I talked to a few people with varying knowledge and caring about baseball. One opinion everyone shared is anyone who juiced does not belong in Cooperstown. If that ends up being the case the all time hit leader(Pete Rose),the all time home run leader(Barry Bonds) members of the 500 HR club and arguably the best pitcher of the second half of the 20th century will all be left out. Just to play devils advocate the Hall is riddled with players who were slightly less than choir boys. If Ty Cobb played now with all the media scrutiny he would never have gotten to 4000 hits. And how about Babe Ruth legend has it he tried to throw his manager off a train. How about John McGraw who would have done anything to win a game. And lastly how many players of the 50s and 60s used to play everyday only after taking a cocktail of uppers(greenies). In my humble opinion baseball is the greatest game but unfortunately has not been populated by the hightest caliber of person. So should McGwire, Bonds and Clemens be punished while others get a get out of jail free card. I don't think its that simple. Bonds, McGwire and Sosa hit all those HRs with the full knowledge that baseball knew they were juicing. So are they truly to blame??

If I was appointed king of the HOF I'll tell you what I would do. Firstly I would take each players case on a individual basis. Its clear the only reason why Sammy Sosa has 600 Homers is because of PEDs. Mark McGwire probably would never get my vote because if you look at his career arc I don't think all those great seasons in the late 90s would have happened without steroids. But a good argument could be made for Bonds and Clemens because they had HOF numbers before they started juicing. If Bonds never used I think he could make two guesses about his career 1.He would never have broken Ruth or Maris's records 2.He still would have been the second greatest LF ever behind Ted Williams. For arguments sake lets say Clemens career ended in 1996 his last with the Red Sox. He already had 3 Cy Youngs. His career arc suggests something odd happened in 1997 when he went to Toronto and suddenly found the fountain of youth. Pitchers career never go like his did. One last word on Bonds and Clemens you can't keep them out of Cooperstown for being jerks.

So after much thinking and debate with myself I decided what I'd do is have a display in the Hall like all the others that celebrate great teams and players and "honor" the accomplishments of the players during the steroids era. This would serve two purposes 1.History of games and nations has some not so happy parts but it does not mean we should ignore them. It may be a bad memory but it happened. 2.As an educational tool. I could just see myself 25 years from now walking thought the hall with my grandchildren. When we get to the display of the Steroids Era and I explain why even if you hit 70HRs or 600 for a career if you cheat you won't get a plaque in the Hall of Legends.

This debate is far from over. Actually its just starting and will explode again when Bonds becomes eligible. Like last year I really want to know what anyone who reads this thinks. Its alot of fun to read your comments.

Yesterdays Once More

I've decided to start my my blog again. Hopefully someone will enjoy it besides me. The first entry will probably be about baseball. But this time I may try to write about other things too. Please check back and feel free to comment on anything.