Do You Feel Lucky?

As we are only a few hours from February the sounds of bats and balls are just around the corner. Which also means Fantasy Baseball is also just around the corner. I was thinking today there are a considerable amount of players who were drafted very high last season who had their season derailed by injury. Those players pose a huge question mark on where they might go in our draft. As I think back to last year the big question was when would A-Rod go. This year I've identified 7 players whose draft status is very questionable due to injury. By the way the number next to the player is his average draft position currently on mockdraftcentral.com







Jose Reyes-ADP 22



The Good-Reyes can steal 70 bases, score over 110 runs and hit 300. And with the spacious outfield Reyes's offensive numbers might even be better than at Shea(expect homers)



The Bad-Reyes makes his living with his legs and any leg injury that took that long to heal has to be worrisome. Also Reyes's maturity level was called into question last year.



The Bottom Line-If Jose looks totally healed in Spring Training there is no way he last until number 22 in our draft. He has first round ability. But there are definitely risks associated with Reyes in 2010





Grady Sizemore-ADP 25



The Good-When healthy Sizemore can help your team in 4 fantasy categories. Also if he cuts down his strikeout percentage his batting average will go up. His BABIP was a very low 276. Expect some regression there.



The Bad-Cleveland will not be a very good offensive team, which means his RBIs and Runs scored opportunities will be lower. BA has been lower the previous year for 4 straight years



The Bottom Line-I think Sizemore's ADP of 25 is probably about right. What pushes his value is his ability to get 30-40 steals. If healthy he won't hurt you.





Johan Santana-ADP 41



The Good-Santana was in the middle of a very good season last year. He had 17/25 QS. Also moving to Citi Field was a plus for a fly ball pitcher like Santana. His HR/FB was his best in 4 years.



The Bad-Like most pitchers on the wrong side of 30 Santana numbers are moving in the wrong direction. His Strikeout rate continues to drop slightly. While his walk rate continues to rise slightly. He just started throwing this week and says he will be fine. But any shoulder injury on a 31 year old pitcher leads to concern.



The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring Training. If he is healthy and continues the typical career path of a power pitcher is numbers may continue to go slightly in the wrong direction. But Johan is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In our league I don't think he makes pick 41.


Josh Hamilton-ADP 52

The Good-Hamilton has showed in spurts to have almost super human ability. Think Roy Hobbs with an addiction. He can easily put up first round numbers. Also hitting in the middle of a potent Texas lineup is a huge plus. And the cherry on top of the sundae is he plays in a terrific hitters park

The Bad-Not only to have have to worry about physical injuries you have to worry about all his other demons. He could be MVP or released in our league. 2008 was his only full productive season

The Bottom Line-Is there any player in all of MLB that we are more unsure of. In my opinion there is no way to project Hamilton. Truly do you feel lucky.


Jake Peavy-ADP 81

The Good-Of all the players on this list Peavy actually returned in 2009 and ended the season with three wins in his last three starts. Peavy's strikeouts per 9 innings has not dipped below 8.5 since 2003. And the Sox are built to win this year.

The Bad-Two big problems. 1.Petco is pitchers version of Disneyworld and the Cell is a very good hitters park. 2 The AL is a much tougher league to pitch in.

The Botton Line-Peavy was consistently one of the 5 pitchers taken in any draft. I don'y believe that will be the case this season. Probably a safe projection is around 10-13. The WHIP, ERA will certainly rise but there is still alot to like.


Carlos Beltran-ADP 89(And sinking faster than the Titanic)

The Good-Beltran has a proven track record of being a very solid consistent performer who can help in all 5 fantasy categories. His only subpar season was 2005. If healthy just about as consistent a player in all of baseball.

The Bad-So does he come back in May?, June? the All Star Break? Who knows. Also the way his situation was handled was amateurish at best. I wonder if he will hold any long term animosity. I'm not a doctor but I know degenerative knee injuries can only get worse. Lastly Citi Field will cost him some home runs.

The Bottom Line-Since alot of our league is Met fans you know we will closely monitor his situation. If he keeps sinking maybe someone drafts him and DLs him and hopes for the best. As of now I'm not optimistic.


Brandon Webb-ADP 126

The Good-Webb has been quietly outstanding now for years. If you look at his peripheral stats they scream consistently excellent. Webb is a ground ball machine. And its mighty tough to hit a home run on a ground ball. Also Webb is in his contract year and also hinted at exploring the free agent market.

The Bad-Webb has started his throwing program and should be ready for the season BUT he is coming off major shoulder surgery. Maybe the injury was inevitable with Webb logging a heavy heavy workload. He pitched over 220 innings 4 years in a row.

The Bottom Line-One to watch very closely in Spring training. The D-Backs tend to be very conservative with their players so I'm sure Webb's workload will be carefully monitored. If even remotely healthy he does not last until 126. FYI Webb is always someone I've wanted on my team but every year someone seems to draft him right before me.