My favorite web site is baseballprospectus.com. The writers on this site do a better job than anyone I know analyzing baseball. But the site is not for everyone. If you are literate in the language of BABIP, FIP, VORP and their signature projection system called PECOTA you'd probably enjoy it more. PECOTA stands for player empirical comparsion and optimization test algorithm. Quite a mouthful huh. I really can't fully explain how it works, but it DOES. Of course its not 100%. But year after year its by far the most accurate predictive system. The prediction that seemed to get the main streams attention was 2 seasons ago after finishing with only 66 wins PECOTA tabbed the Rays to finish with 90 wins and make the playoffs. While most of us in Florida knew the Rays were improving, 90 wins seemed like a pike dream. The rational was the Rays went from the worst defensive team to one that should be very much improved by getting Jason Bartlett, moving BJ Upton to center, moving Iwamura to second. And they for saw Longo taking over third very early in the season. They predicted this unit would become an over average fielding unit. Which in turn would help the young pitchers. And they hit it right on the nose. This is just one of many things I could point to. So this week when BP released its early PECOTA forecasts I thought it would be interesting to post the predictions and get your feedback. The first thing the suprised me about the AL predictions was no shockers. PECOTA usually hits one underdog. The three best teams are in one division. The biggest surprise alot will find is the outcome of the shortstack. So without further ado here are the predicted standings as of Feb.1 and the top 10 in each of the 5 fantasy categories. I'll do the NL next. And when they have their final predictions right before the season I'll post those.
AL EAST
New York 94 68
Boston 92 70
Tampa 90 72
Baltimore 80 82
Toronto 72 90
AL CENTRAL
Minnesota 83 79
Chicago 80 82
Detroit 78 84
Cleveland 76 86
KC 75 87
AL WEST
Texas 87 75
LA Angels 80 82
Oakland 80 82
Seattle 77 85
Homeruns
Miguel Cabrera Det. 39
Alex Rodriguez NY. 38
Evan Longoria Tam 36
Mark Teixeira NY 34
Carlos Pena Tam 34
Nelson Cruz Tex 31
Chris Davis Tex 31
Justin Morneau Min 29
Josh Hamilton Tex 29
Ian Kinsler Tex 29
RBIs
Mark Teixeira NY 112
Justin Morneau Min 105
Miguel Cabrera Det 105
Alex Rodriguez NY 104
Evan Longoria TB 100
Nick Markakis Balt 93
Josh Hamiton Tex 92
Kevin Kouzmanoff Oak 88
Carlos Pena TB 88
Adam Lind Tor 88
Batting Average
Joe Mauer Min 317
Ichiro Sea 316
Dustin Pedroia Bos 313
Nick Markakis Balt 304
Magglio Ordonez Det 303
Miguel Cabrera Det 302
Vladimir Guerrero Tex 301
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 297
Carl Crawford TB 297
Billy Butler KC 297
Howie Kendrick LA 297
RUNS
Ian Kinsler Tex 111
Dustin Pedroia Bos 106
Evan Longoria TB 94
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 93
Carl Crawford TB 93
Brian Roberts Bal 93
Chone Figgins Sea 93
Curtis Granderson NY 91
Mark Teixeira NY 91
Alex Rodriguez NY 91
STOLEN BASES
Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 51
Carl Crawford TB 48
Chone Figgins Sea 40
Juan Pierre Chi 40
Rajai Davis Oak 38
BJ Upton TB 37
Brian Roberts Bal 37
Brett Gardner NY 36
Elvis Andrus Tex 36
Ian Kinsler Tex 30
So what do you guys think? Please comment on what you think PECOTA got right and what they got wrong.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Quick glance - they got Seattle wrong as I have Seattle battling it out with Texas for the top spot with the Angels close behind. They also have made too great an emphasis on Texas' HR power and with Kinsler projected to hit 5th, he doesn't lead the league in runs scored as that will be down to around 85-90.
ReplyDelete